Economics

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Does Tourism Reduce Poverty in Sub-Saharan African Countries?
(SAGE Publications, 2020) Folarin, O.; Adeniyi, O.A.
To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), precisely the one of eradicating extreme poverty at the end of 2030, it is important to understand factors that can reduce poverty. This article examines the effects of tourism development on poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries. Because of the possibility of an endogeneity problem arising from a reverse causation that might exist between poverty and the explanatory variables, the system Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) estimation technique was deployed. The findings showed that tourism development contributes to poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. In other words, the results obtained provided ample support for the workability of a pro-poor tourism policy agenda. As a result, policies that are targeted at increasing the attractiveness and awareness of the existing SSA tourism sites in order to increase international tourism receipts and arrivals should be promoted since such interventions have considerable poverty reduction potential.
Financial Liberalisation and Small Medium Scale Enterprises Growth in Nigeria
(West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), 2016) Usuah, E.; Odozi, J.; Adeniyi, O.A.
This paper examined the relationship between financial liberalization and the growth of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria controlling for some other key macroeconomic variables such as investment, inflation and the domestic national output (GDP). Using annual data covering the period 1981-2012, we estimated the effect of the macroeconomic variables on the growth of SMEs. An index which measured the gradual progression and institutional changes involved in financial liberalization was constructed for this study. A number of interesting results were obtained. First, unlike previous studies which concluded that financial liberalization leads to a reduction in financing constraint of SMEs thereby leading to their growth; our results showed that financial liberalization had negative though non-significant effect on the growth of SMEs in Nigeria. Second, the results also showed that inflation had a positive and significant effect on the growth of SMEs in Nigeria. Investment had a positive though non-significant effect on the growth of SMEs in Nigeria. Finally, GDP had a large negative but significant effect on the growth of SMEs. On the basis of the result obtained from the study, government policies towards further liberalization of the financial sector of the country might not lead to an increase in the growth of SMEs given the existence of a negative relationship between SMEs growth and financial liberalization.
Modelling Central Bank Behaviour in Nigeria: A Markov Switching Approach
(Elsevier, 2020) Ayinde, T. O.; Bankole, A. S.; Adeniyi, O.A.
The study models the behaviour of the Central Bank of Nigeria. An extended Taylor’s framework that accounted for exchange rate dynamics and political risk factors was adopted. In order to capture both ex ante and ex-post behaviours of the monetary authority in the country, Markov-Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) approach was employed. The period of investigation spanned 1981q1-2017q4. The study found that money supply in Nigeria was endogenous and showed, consequently, that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) acted discretionally rather than stick to some monetary policy rules for the period under investigation. The results also suggested that political risk factors significantly moderated the behaviour of the CBN; especially during period of high-interest rate regime. With or without the effects of political risks being accounted for, low-interest rate regime was found to be more persistent than high-interest rate regime. With a relatively high persistence of low interest rate, the study found evidence for the popular Fisher’s effect and, then, suggested that inflation targeting should be one of the policy strategies of the monetary authority in Nigeria.