Economics
Permanent URI for this communityhttps://repository.ibadanedu.com/handle/123456789/293
Browse
5 results
Search Results
Item An Empirical Re-examination of Exchange Rate-Trade Balance Nexus in Nigeria(African Journal Online (AJOL), 2013) Oyinlola, M. A.; Omisakin, O. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.The Nigerian exchange rate-trade balance nexus was re-examined. The long run relationship between these variables was explored using the Gregory-Hansen cointegration approach on a data sample between 1980:Q1 and 2010:Q4. Prior to this, three efficient integration tests that can overcome potentially severe finite sample power and size problems suffered by the standard methods were tactfully pursued for robustness. The short run impact analysis was done in the error correction framework. The analyses showed that exchange rate depreciation led to trade balance deterioration in both the short run and the long run. Thus, this study could not find support for J-curve in Nigeria. Some suggestions on the way forward were put forth.Item The Dynamics of Stock Prices and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Nigeria(West African Monetary Institute, 2012) Oyinlola, M. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Omisakin, O.This paper probed the long-run and short-run dynamics between stock prices and exchange rates in Nigeria using the Johansen and Gregory-Hansen cointegration analyses, causality test and Exponentional General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity modeling on daily data from January 2, 2002 to August 11, 2011.The results showed that there is no long run relationship between stock prices and exchange rate in Nigeria, albeit, with a structural break date of mid April 2007, which coincides with the period when the stock prices plumped precipitously from the impact of global financial crisis in early 2007. In addition, the results indicated that there is a unidirectional relationship from stock prices to exchange rate and that the EGARCH modeling suggested that a 100% increase in stock prices would lead to a 1.66% appreciation of the exchange rate. Thus, it is imperative for monetary authorities in Nigeria to take into account the role of stock market development in the conduct of its exchange rate policy.Item Responsiveness of Trade Flows to Changes in Exchange rate and Relative prices: Evidence from Nigeria(Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, 2010) Oyinlola, M. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Omisakin, O."This paper examines the long-run and short-run impacts of exchange rate and price changes on trade flows in Nigeria using exports and imports functions. The bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied on a quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2007Q4. The results indicate that in both the short-run and long-run Nigeria’s trade flows are chiefly influenced by income- both domestic and foreign-, relative prices, nominal effective exchange rates and the stock of external reserves. The results also reveal that in the long-run, devaluation is more effective than relative prices in altering imports demand at both baseline and augmented models. The reverse is, however, the case for exports demand. Furthermore, the sum of the estimated price elasticities of export and import demand in Nigeria exceeds unity indicating that the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition holds thus implying that a devalued naira might hold considerable promise as the panacea to rising trade deficits."Item Responsiveness of Trade Flows to Changes in Exchange rate and Relative prices: Evidence from Nigeria(Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, 2010) Oyinlola, M. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Omisakin, O.This paper examines the long-run and short-run impacts of exchange rate and price changes on trade flows in Nigeria using exports and imports functions. The bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied on a quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2007Q4. The results indicate that in both the short-run and long-run Nigeria’s trade flows are chiefly influenced by income- both domestic and foreign-, relative prices, nominal effective exchange rates and the stock of external reserves. The results also reveal that in the long-run, devaluation is more effective than relative prices in altering imports demand at both baseline and augmented models. The reverse is, however, the case for exports demand. Furthermore, the sum of the estimated price elasticities of export and import demand in Nigeria exceeds unity indicating that the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition holds thus implying that a devalued naira might hold considerable promise as the panacea to rising trade deficits.Item Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria(2012) Dada, E. A.; Oyeranti, O. A.This study analyses the impact of exchange rate on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria. Based on the annual time series data for the period 1970 to 2009, the research examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between the real exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model, and a vector-autoregressive model. The estimation results show that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in the exchange rate and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and other economic variables particularly the growth of exports (oil). These factors have tended to sustain a pattern of real exchange rate over-valuation, which has been unfavourable for growth. The conclusion is that improvements in exchange rate management are necessary but not adequate to revive the Nigerian economy. A broad program of economic reform is required, which includes among others, a complementary restrictive monetary policy. On the whole, the results are informative.