FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
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Item Characteristics and behaviour of African factor markets and market institutions and their consequences for growth(Center for International Development, Harvard University, 1999-12) Adenikinju, A. F.; Oyeranti, O.This paper provides a detailed characterisation of the structure and behaviour of African factor markets and the institutions that impact on their operations. It shows that the African factor markets are imperfect and inefficient, thus constraining economic growth. The paper posits that for the current reform programmes to succeed, policy that enhances the efficiency and competitiveness of the African factor markets must be put in place.Item Capitalisation of the Nigerian agricultural sector(Faculty of Social and Management Science, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria, 1996) Dalhatu, D. M.; Oyeranti, O. A.Rationalising the dismal performance of the Nigerian agricultural sector on the score of low capital contents, a case is made for capital expansion and improvement in the small scale farming sector. Bearing in mind that there are differences in the demographic structures of the Nigerian rural economy, a diversified capitalisation approach is suggested, whereby land-saving would be reserved for thickly populated areas of the country, and the labour-saving type is for sparsely populated areas. The impact of this approach on the employment situation in the country may not be negative, rather, it may reintroduce an era of agriculture-led growth and development.Item The impact of exchange rate instability on Nigerian non-oil exports(Faculty of Social and Management Science, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria, 1996) Adenikinju, A. F.; Alabi, G. A.The paper attempts to estimate the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on Nigerian non-oil exports to some of her major trading partners. Although the study generates mixed results on the impact of exchange rate instability on volume of exports, in most of the estimates there is evidence to suggest that Nigeria’s non-oil exports may have been adversely affected. The general non-significance of the exchange rate variable in the estimates also shows that the recent depreciation of the naira exchange rate may not be the overriding factor in explaining the demand for her non-oil exports. This further contradicts the claim that adopting the path of macroeconometric adjustments followed by the East Asian countries would produce the same result in all other developing countries like Nigeria.Item Rekindling investment for economic development in Nigeria: theoretical and macroeconomic Issues- a discussion(The Nigerian Economic Society, Ibadan, 1998) Oyeranti, O. A.Item Import competition and Nigeria’s manufacturing sector: analysis of the employment effects of trade(African Journals Online, 1999-06) Bankole, A. S.; Lawanson, O. A.; Aminu, A.Item The inversion of geoelectrical data for hydrogeological applications in crystalline basement areas of Nigeria(ELSEVIER, 1997) Olayinka, A.I.; Weller, A.A methodology is presented for the inversion of two-dimensional (2-D) geoelectrical data for solving hydrogeological problems in crystalline basement areas. The initial step entails compiling an earth model using all available geological, borehole and geophysical information. This model then served as the input to a 2-D inversion algorithm based on the Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique (SIRT). The algorithm tries to find a model that is as close as possible to the starting model. To demonstrate the usefulness of this procedure, two field examples from Nigeria, conducted as part of a borehole siting programme, are described. In the first example, borehole information regarding the thickness of the weathered zone overlying a gneissic bedrock was used to constrain the 1-D inversion of sounding data and the model thus compiled was used as the starting model for 2-D inversion. In the second example, only sounding information was used to determine the starting model. If the starting model has incorporated all the available information as constraints, it is generally possible to compute a model that not only fits the measured data but is also a good approximation of the subsurface geology, more so when several 2-D models can fit the same set of field measurements on account of the limitations posed by equivalenceItem SPATIAL VARIATIONS IN ACCESSIBILITY TO SECONDARY SCHOOL FACILITIES IN OYO STATE(1988-07) ADEYEMO, A. M.The developing countries of the world have come to realise that issues involving human resource development and basic values may need to receive attention before regional problems can be successfully attacked either directly or indirectly, through sustained national economic growth. Need arises to tackle fundamental structural problems before growth and development can proceed to a point where it positively affects remaining structural problems. In the three preceding decades, Nigerian governments (civilian and military) have made various attempts to drastically raise the income level as well as the standard and quality of life of the people at both urban and regional scales. Since independence, elaborate social welfare programmes (health and education in particular) have always been an important feature of development planning in the old Western Region (now Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Lagos and Bendel States). Education facilities are among the public services that profoundly affect human well-being the availability of which has far reaching implications for a people's income and quality of life and increases the attractiveness of an area. More recently, Oyo State government acknowledged the need to enhance the quality of life of the people and increase their level of participation in decision-making and access to social opportunity. Between October 1, 1979 and December, 1983, Oyo State government attempted to ensure equality of access to secondary schools in social and physical term by the introduction of 'free education at all levels’ and/or proliferation of secondary schools designed to remove any barriers to the consumption of secondary school education. The policy objectives in this regard have been to improve access to educational resources by distributing them among Local government areas equitably according to need, and to correct territorial injustices and maintain efficiency in the allocation of secondary school education resources among areas. But how far have these objectives been realized? The main thrust of this study is to describe and explain the geographical variations in accessibility to secondary schools among a set of settlements and across Local government areas of the study area. The objectives therefore are to: examine the implications of State government policy (1979-1983) on accessibility of the people to secondary schools; determine the level of provision of secondary schools among Local government areas in relation to needs; examine the extent to which state citizens are better or worse off as a result of government policy on education; examine the extent to which proliferation of secondary school facilities in the State has improved distributional efficiency; and find out the major factors that determine the distribution of secondary schools in a typical region of a Third World country. In doing this work both population and secondary school data were used and they were collected from secondary sources; while data on physical distance from facility location point to user settlement) was generated from the base map. The methods of analysis employed include access opportunity model as put forward by Schneider and Symons (1971), Gini-coefficient, Lorenz curves and ratio of advantage or disadvantage, planning standards as laid down by Ministry of Education and multiple regression model. This study has revealed some facts about the distribution of secondary schools before and after 1979-1983 education programme in the State. The study shows that mass provision of secondary school facilities has increased accessibility of the population in the State to secondary school education. Enrolments in secondary schools increased from about 11% in 1978 to 36.3% in 1983. In 1978 50% of secondary schools was controlled by 39 % of the population of the State but this increased to 45% in 1983. This implies that state government policy on secondary school education has increased people's access to a larger share of the facilities by 6%. Average access opportunity to secondary schools and teachers increased by 140.51 and 108.80 percent respectively in 1983; while total population without secondary schools declined by 54 percent. Total weighted distance declined from 32,009,271 in 1978 to 9,844,663 person kilometres in 1983; while in 1983 mean weighted distance decreased by 49 percent. The mass establishment of secondary schools has also redistributed secondary school facilities in a more egalitarian direction than ever before. The spatial concentration of secondary schools and teachers in urban areas declined by 7 and 3 percent respectively while proportion of the population controlling 50 percent of secondary schools and teacher in the rural areas increased by 13 and 18 percent respectively. Thirdly, the increased number of secondary schools has not improved the distributional optimality with which the facilities were delivered. Inefficiency in the distribution of secondary school teachers and schools was overwhelming during the periods. Proliferation of secondary school facile ties has not altered the inefficiency level of social service delivery system in Nigeria. The level of inefficiency that characterizes the system has remained relatively stable over time. Fourthly, the study has shown that egalitarian approach to the provision of social services has substantially reduced inequalities and inequities in secondary school provision. The result is that disparities between the spatial pattern of need and spatial pattern of secondary school provision got reduced. There was redistribution of services in a more egalitarian direction than before. The study shows that decentralization of schools is less efficient, but it is more equitable in the sense that differences among urban and rural areas, between and within local government areas have been reduced. There was no evidence that State government made any efforts to implement the laid down distributional standards in the provision of secondary schools in the State hence the high level of inefficiency in the distribution of secondary schools among Local government areas of the State. Finally, the relationship between need (population) and provision of secondary school facilities was considerably stronger than any other identified explanatory variables implying that territorial justice exists with regards to the distribution of secondary schools in Oyo State. It shows that social and territorial justices can only be sustained if services are distributed in relation to population (need) rather than on the basis of political considerations. Areas of high population concentration attract social services and other developmental infrastructure than areas of scanty and scattered population. The observed mis-match between enrolments and provision of teachers revealed that the quantitative growth of secondary school resources was not accompanied with development. In the provision of secondary school facilities (1979-1983) there was growth but no development. The structure of this thesis is as follows. Chapter one gives the background to the study; while Chapter two deals with conceptual and theoretical framework and literature review. The extent to which mass provision of secondary schools in the State improved access opportunity to secondary schools in 1983 was examined in Chapter three; while levels of inequity in the distribution of secondary schools among Local government areas, and between urban and rural areas were examined in Chapter four. Although mass provision of secondary school, increases access opportunity of the population to secondary school education, yet it does not improve the optimal distribution of secondary school facilities among Local government areas of the State. Chapter five confirms this postulate; while Chapter six looks at factors that shape the spatial aspects of secondary school facilities in the state. Chapter seven is conclusion.Item AN ASSESSMENT OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HOUSING POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES IN OYO STATE NIGERIA(1986-09) ADEROGBA, C. A.The urban housing problems in Oyo State have become very diverse and grievous in the recent time. The urban Population growth rate does not match the rate at which the housing units were being produced to accommodate the Population. However, the purpose of the work is to assess the policies and programmes that were meant to alleviate the Problems of housing shortage in particular. Housing policies and programmes of the Federal Government since the colonial period through the first to the current National Development Plan periods were identified and described. The policy of the colonial administration was to provide accommodation for their officials at the Regional Capital. In the first two plan periods, housing was lumped up with Urban and Regional Planning. In the Third and Fourth Plan periods it was recognised as a separate sector. There were policies to plan the physical layout of the buildings, ensuring environmental sanitation, providing shelter for all categories of individuals, encouraging availability of land, building Materials and building technology, financing housing programmes through loans, and providing infrastructural facilities to go along with housing. To implement the policies and programmes, the institutional framework involved were Federal Ministry of Housing and Environment, Federal Housing Authority (FHA) and the Federal Mortgage Bank. Five research questions were examined. Questionnaire was used to collect primary data. A kind of survey was carried out to the housing estates, and literature were contacted. Simple Statistical techniques of tabulation, percentages, correlation and regression analyses were used. Cartographic techniques were also used to present some Information. Some remarkable achievements were made. However, the analyses Show that the shortcomings surpassed the achievements. The colonial administration did not plan for any other city or town than the State Capital. Even after independence, the first two plan periods had policies and programmes for the state Capital alone. In the Third and Fourth Plan periods, there were policies for some selected urban centres but still with highest concentration at the State Capital. All institutions involved with the housing loan and housing delivery Systems were also found located at Ibadan. The low-cost housing units were concentrated at Ibadan while the rest were found scattered among the Local Government Head- quarters in the state. The housing units were found to be too costly and sophisticated for the category of people they were meant. The units were not located to replace any of the slums. They were haphazardly located at the outskirt of the cities and towns and thus cut-off from urban facilities and Services. The land use decree was not effective therefore lands for building houses were still very scarce. The Federal Mortgage Bank loan was restrictive and inaccessible. The public found the policies and programmes to be generally unsuitable and ineffective vis-a-vis the purpose. These shortcomings arise because the public were not made to participate at any stage of the policy formulation and implementation. Secondly, there were no data on housing conditions and housing industries. Lastly, the culture and norms of the societies for whom the policies and programmes were meant were never taken into consideration. Thus, the schemes excluded the truly urban majority. In conclusion, the work suggested what should be located where, and warned that the need to identify who- needs-what over space and time would be very crucial. Data Bank and Statistical Systems for House and housing industry were suggested. New questions were raised.Item Psychological aspects of death(Nigerian psychological association, 1999) Tamen, F. I.; Taiwo, A. O.; Ekore, J. O.; Edewor, D.; Ojo, S.; Ojedokun, O.Item EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS(1993) ADEGBITE, E. O.In 1973 the industrial countries of the world abandoned the Bretton – Wood adjustable - peg exchange rate system as a means of international payments, and embraced a floating exchange rate system. By the beginning of the 1980's some developing countries of the world joined the league of exchange rate-floaters. It was thought that a floating exchange rate system is intrinsically superior to a fixed one because it not only insulates an economy from the events in other economies but also provides automatic adjustment of the trade balance and the balance of payments. From the mid 1980's however there have been calls in the industrial countries for yet a change in the international payments system from a floating one back to the Bretton-Woods fixed system (Marris, 1984; Dunn, 1983) or to some other variant of a fixed system. The questions then are - is there an ideal exchange rate regime? - is there reason to believe that a given exchange rate regime enhances the performance of an economy better than another? These questions form the focus of this study. There have been several positions in the literature. While Mundell-Fleming (1960, 1962) maintain that a floating exchange system is better than a fixed one if a country tends to depend more on monetary policy, but that a fixed exchange rate regime is ideal when fiscal policy is the major instrument employed in an economy, Sohmen (1965) maintained that a floating regime is superior whatever the more dominant economic policy (fiscal or monetary). Demberg (1970) maintained that the performance of an economy does not depend on the exchange rate regime per-se but rather on the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy. In the developing world there is fear that a floating exchange regime would aggravate rather than reduce the problems of inflation. debt-service burden and balance of payments disequilibrium (Olofin, Akinkugbe, Ajayi 1986). This study therefore attempted to find out which of the positions in the literature really holds in the case of developing African economies. To find answers to the issues raised we chose three African economies who had experienced both fixed and floating exchange rate systems, Namely, Ghana. Nigeria and Uganda. We built a model of each economy in the manner of Rhomberg (1964) and Tullio 1981. Each model has two versions. The shorter version has seven stochastic equations and tries to capture the economy under a fixed system, while the longer version added two additional stochastic equations to the first set and endogenizes exchange rates and interest rates as obtains under a floating exchange system. Utilizing quarterly data for 1977 to 1990 for Nigeria and Ghana, and for 1981 to 1990 for Uganda and employing the Ordinary Least Squares technique we estimated the shorter version of the model for the period 1977:1- 1990:4 and the longer version for the period 1986:4-1990:4 for Ghana and Nigeria. In the case of Uganda we estimated the longer version for the period 1981:1 to 1990:4 and the shorter version for 1987:2 to 1990:4. Beyond the statistical tests of the individual equations and parameters, we attempted to carry out rigorous tests of the validity of our model(s) through dynamic simulation. Thus we solved our model(s) using the Time Series Processor (TSP) econometric Software (Version 4.0) developed by Hall in 1983. When we solved each model using the Gauss -Seidel iterative technique, each converged for each endogenous variable and for each year demonstrating that each model is internally consistent. Utilizing different policy scenarios we tried to find out the effects of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policy changes on internal sectors' macroaggregates of prices, real demand for money and money supply, as well as on external sector's macroaggregates of exports, imports and the trade balance. The results of our estimation exercises reveal that in Ghana a floating exchange rate system does not fuel inflation as is suggested by casual empiricism; rather it is the money supply that is the major propeller of domestic prices, given an exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices of 2% which is statistically insignificant at the 5% level and a money supply elasticity of domestic prices of 19% that is statistically significant at the 5% level. In Uganda there is a remarkable pass through from nominal exchange rates onto prices which contradicts Elbadawi's (1990) position, that it is not nominal exchange rates that fuel inflation in Uganda but fiscal deficits. The exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices in Uganda is 11% and this is statistically significant at the 5% level. However even in Uganda, nominal money supply and nominal rates of interest proved to be greater propellers of prices hence they have more dominant impact on inflation than the nominal exchange rate. In Nigeria there is some degree of pass through from nominal exchange rates onto prices given an exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices of 5%, which is statistically significant at the 5% level. However as in Ghana and Uganda money supply was the greater propeller of prices in Nigeria. What is more- the estimation results also showed that nominal exchange rates in the three countries follow the money supply. This goes to show that the behavior of the money supply and hence monetary policy influences the direction and degree of variability in nominal exchange rates under a floating system. Hence it shows that monetary policy is crucial to the success of the floating exchange rate system. Further the money supply was shown to vary in response to government fiscal deficits which makes fiscal prudence or otherwise the major determinant of exchange rate movements. For the simulation experiments we tried to find in what ways our endogenous variables change if a given macroeconomic policy varies while the others are kept constant. Thus we increased the rate of growth of government expenditure while keeping monetary policy and exchange rate policy constant. Similarly when we increased the rate of growth of the money supply we assumed fiscal and exchange rate policies to be constant. Our results show that in the long-run (over a period of at least ten years) a floating exchange rate performs better than a fixed one in terms of ensuring expanded output which ensures declining prices which in turn results in rising real demand for money and hence in rising rates of interests. A floating exchange rate regime also expanded exports and higher positive trade balance. Overall however the success of the floating system depends on coordinated and prudent macroeconomic policies; in the words of Goldstein (1984) "the capacity of the exchange rate system per-se to do good or harm should not be overestimated... the importance of discipline and coordinated macroeconomic policies for the successful operation of floating exchange rate regime should not be underestimated".